Tuesday, November 22, 2011

NFL :: What to Watch the Rest of the Year

Playoffs?! Playoffs?! These teams are just trying to win a game and you want to talk about playoffs?!  Ok. Using win percentage, home and away records, offensive ranking, defensive ranking, and overall power rankings from a few sites, here are the remaining regular-season games that you need to pay attention to because of the playoff implications in regards to rankings in both [AFC/NFC] conferences. Do you have any idea how much time/planning I just saved you and how much of my time I waste on football devote to you?

Week 12: 
49ers @Ravens: The Harbough Brothers collide in a coaching duel that pits the 49ers perfect road record against the Raven's undefeated mark at home. Both teams are legitimately in the hunt to earn first-round bye-weeks and win their respective divisions. Will they meet again in the Super Bowl?
Bears @Raiders: The AFC West is still up for grabs and Raiders could win it, grabbing them a 4-spot in the AFC playoffs, Bears are trying to keep it together after losing [starting QB] Jay Cutler. Chicago was beginning to look like a contender before Cutler went down with a thumb injury. Can [former Mike Martz/Rams QB] Mark Bulger keep them afloat?

Week 13:
Chiefs @Bears: No Cutler means Da Bears lose two in a row, allowing the Lions to get in with the 6th seed, replacing the Bears in the NFC playoffs.

Falcons @Texans: The Texans could drop a game without [QB] Matt Schaub, forcing the Texans to rely on their running back tandem of Arian Foster & Ben Tate. Foster and Tate are phenomenal behind the Texans zone blocking scheme, but will they be too one-dimensional? [QB] Matt Leinhart needs to prove he can play in the NFL.
Lions @Saints: Direct implication on whether Detroit makes the playoffs and, if so, play the Saints again in the first-round (3v6?)

Week 14:
Texans @Bengals: See above. If the Bengals win, they could get in with the 6-seed.
Giants @Cowboys: The winner is going after the 4-seed. Giants win and the Cowboys lose the following week @Tampa Bay, Giants are looking dangerous. If the Cowboys win both, then they look to have the 4-seed locked up.

Week 15:
Cowboys @Tampa Bay: See above. Cowboys on the road? Ride the Romo-coaster.
Detroit @Raiders: A Raiders win could keep the Lions out and allow the Cowboys and Giants to both get in the playoffs.
Ravens @Chargers: A Chargers win has direct implications between the Ravens or Steelers getting the 2-seed in the AFC.
Steelers @49ers: See aforementioned scenario. Add to it that a Steelers win, on the road, could get them a 1-seed/home field advantage in the AFC over the Patriots.

Week 16:
Bears @Packers: Rivalry game. Packers could still be undefeated and looking to put the nail in the Bear's playoff coffin.
Falcons @Saints: NFC South rivalry game with implications on the 3 & 5 seeds in the NFC so it changes who their opponent is between Giants and Cowboys (or Lions and Cowboys, see week's 13+14).

Week 17:
Ravens @Bengals: 5 & 6 seed implications.
Steelers @Browns/ Bills @Patriots: A Steelers win and Patriots loss could give the Steelers a 1-seed and home field advantage.
Lions @Packers/ Cowboys @Giants: Decides who between the Cowboys, Giants, and Lions occupy two of the spots in the NFC and will play [most likely] the Falcons or the Saints. If the Packers somehow stumble down the strech, then the 49ers could, theoretically, get a 1-seed and home field advantage.
Titans @Texans: Direct implications on who gets in with the 4-seed in the AFC.

What Happens Next?
A true NFL Super-Bowl contender contains a coach that makes good decisions, a solid QB who doesn't turn the ball over as well as makes plays, a running game that can be productive in inclement weather, a great defense, an ability to protect home field, and luck. Based on those factors, there are three teams from each division who are in the conversation for the aforementioned reasons. The Packers, 49ers, and Saints represent the NFC. The Steelers, Ravens, and Patriots represent the AFC.

How can you bet against the Pack in the NFC? Aaron Rodgers looks unbelievable and they adjust to the competition week in and week out to keep winning. They get to the Super Bowl and face...I have no friggin' clue! Ben Rothelisberger has a fractured thumb and lost the Super Bowl for the Steelers last year, but their D and running game look solid.  The Patriots defense is scandalous, fortunately for them, they don't face a great quarterback for the rest of the season so they can win out and grab the 1-seed, continuing to ride Tom Brady. The Ravens constantly underachieve despite having a good QB, great running back, solid D, and a good coach.

Doesn't matter who wins the AFC as Green Bay wins its second Super Bowl in a row. Packers lose if Aaron Rodgers and [the Patriots'] Tom Brady get into a shootout. Patriots have the last possession. Brady drives them down the field for a last-second field goal. Nah....

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