Football Friday: Two for the Money!

Last Week: W (Saints +2.5)
Season: 7-3-1

Let's follow Fitzy to the bank! 

Seven Weeks. 

Seven Wins. 

This is what I feel like. 

The great philosopher Bodhi once said, "If you want the ultimate, you gotta be willing to pay the ultimate price." So, like I did in week six, I'm giving the leisuralites two winners in the same week. The only difference is the two this time around are favorites [rather than dogs]. 

Bengals @ Chiefs:  Andy Dalton will avenge his week five egg that cost us and stick it to the hapless Chiefs. KC is 0-4 at home against the spread [ATS] and the Bengals are 2-2 on the road ATS. The Chiefs are terrible and eyeing that number-one draft pick already while the Bengals are better than their 4-5 record indicates, coming off a blowout against the Giants at home. Skeptics might say this is 'trap game' for the Bengals after last week, I don't buy it. Bengals -3

Packers @ Lions:  Greg Jennings is out. Clay Matthews is out. Charles Woodson is out. Donald Driver and Jordy nelson are the walking wounded. As long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy and Randall Cobb is running around that fast indoor track, I like the Packers to get their Tenth win in the last 11 games between these two teams. Packers -3

Football Friday: Who Dat?!

Last Week: W (Bucs +1.5)
Season: 6-3-1

Did I see Doug Martin having the baller second half that he did? Of course not. Did I start him in Fantasy? Fuckin'-A right I did! To the tune of 91.2 points in my league (we have big play bonuses).

Vilma and Brees will both have to shine for a W

I'm 6-0 my last six weeks. Time to put my undefeated streak against another one. I'm taking the New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at home against the undefeated Atlanta Falcons.

Let's take a look at the career numbers for the Brees v Matty Ice rivalry that started back in 2008.

• Brees is 6-2 vs the Falcons since Matty Ice became the starter. Throwing for an average of 319 yards a game, completing 68% of his passes with 19 TDs and 10 INTs.
• Ryan is 2-6 in the matchup, but he did win one of those games in New Orleans. A 27-24 overtime thriller. 
• Other than that, Ryan hasn't been the reason for his teams inability to beat the Saints. He has thrown for an average of 280 yards a game, completing 59% of his passes with 10 TDs and 5 INTs.

Brees has clearly had Matty Ice's number. I think you have to be intrigued by getting the saints as a dog at home after that Monday night performance. I thought the Saints were going down last week, but I was dead wrong. Last week they played a lot like the team that was 13-3 last year and won a championship in the 2009 season. They ran the ball effectively, put pressure on the quarterback, created turnovers, and Drew Brees played his typical A-game.

I think it's possible that Steve Spagnolo finally got through to his defense. While I attribute a lot of those QB pressures to an inept Philly offensive line, I think it's a step in the right direction. Jonathan Vilma is back to quarterback the D and knows this Atlanta offense well. Will they have the same success against Atlanta? Probably not, but I think given the way the Falcons barely beat the Cowboys last week, they're probably due for a cooler. I still think the Falcons are a better team and will win the next matchup when they meet again in the Georgia Dome. But for now, I am going with the team that looked more impressive last week, cannot afford to lose, and has home field in this rivalry.

Plus my fantasy team needs a big game out of Brees. Saints +2.5

Football Friday: Avast Ye Matey!

Last Week: W (Giants -2)
Season: 5-3-1

The great philosophers Ma$e & Puff ripped-off the phrase, "Bad, bad, bad, bad boys you make me feel so good." and this week it rings true. TLS heads west (TV's all up in the head rests) for the Pirate Bowl! Tampa Bucs at the Oakland Raiders.
Many NFL fans perceive these teams playing poorly because of the record within their respective conferences, but I like this young Bucs squad under [first year coach] Greg Schiano. [RB] Doug Martin is a future stud and [QB] Josh Freeman is looking more & more comfortable each passing week in his new offense.  He's finally hitting [Big Free Agent Signing/WR] Vincent Jackson for some big downfield plays and the occasional touchdown. Freeman has also rekindled some his magic late in games with [WR] Mike Williams. 

Martin dominated the Vikings D last week

The Raiders are coming off a win against the Chiefs, which means virtually nothing. They're giving up a point and a half (-1.5) because they're at home, half of the obligatory three-point home-field advantage. Smells funky in Oakland, and it's not the black hole. 

The Bucs have let a few leads slip in the second half of games earlier in the season, but I think they're starting to come together in all three phases of the game. Their defense will contain [RB] Darren McFadden and while Carson Palmer might hit [WR] Denarius Moore for a few big plays, it won't be enough over four quarters to top the Bucs. Plus, look at the records against the spread [ATS]:

Bucs and the points [+1.5] because Raiders end up settling for a lot of Sebastian Janokowski field-goals.