NFL Divisional Round Picks

Like last week, all picks are against the spread.

Last Week: 2-2

Will Jim show his 'boyish
exuberance' again?

Saints @ 49ers [+3.5]: Last week, Drew Brees used the opportunities the Lions gave him for the win and the cover (-11). However, the Lions offense had the ball twice under four minutes and could've covered with a late TD. Pierre Thomas was the big surprise for the Saints offense last week. He, along with Chris Ivory, and more importantly Darren Sproles,
are going to have to win the upcoming game in San Francisco. Sproles and [TE] Jimmy Graham have created mismatches all year for defenses, but San Francisco linebackers Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman are playing as well as any duo in the game right now. The Niners D, at home with their crowd, will give Brees and company more problems than they're used to in the Superdome. On the other side of the ball, Frank Gore will have success running, keeping the Saints offense off the field, and Alex Smith will continue his campaign for Comeback Player of the Year by not turning the ball over. If the Saints can run the ball, it opens up pandora's box for the Niners D, leading to a Saints win and cover. If Willis, Bowman, and the Niners linebackers can stop the run while containing Jimmy Graham, then the 49ers will at least cover, maybe even win outright. However, I just can't see Alex Smith keeping up with Drew Brees. Saints -3.5.

Tebows Broncos @ Patriots [-13.5]: Broncos are on a short week, on the road, and have some injuries (Eric Decker and Brian Dawkins). Patriots get LB Brandon Spikes, DB/S Patrick Chung, and 4/5 of their starting offensive line back. Temperature is supposed to be mid-20s by game time. Tom Brady is 18-2 (.900) in games played in snow, ice or below-freezing temperatures, making him the best cold-weather quarterback in NFL history since 1960. That doesn't even take into consideration the home field. Brady is too good, despite having no run supprt and getting [offensive coordinator] Josh "I built the current Broncos roster" McDaniels back certainly gives the Patriots an advantage. Another betting fact, an 11-plus win home team against a losing team last year have gone an eye-opening 16-0 straight up and 12-3-1 against the spread. The Tebow train runs out of steam in Foxborough. Patriots -13.5.

Houston @ Baltimore [-9]: This from [ESPN] Mark Clayton, 

"In Week 6, the Texans lost in Baltimore 29-14. What makes things ominous is that they lost with Matt Schaub at quarterback. Flacco was able to move the ball on the Texans' defense. He completed 20 of 33 passes for 305 yards, but the Texans were tough to score on in the red zone. The Ravens had to settle for five Cundiff field goals. The Ravens were able to contain Texans halfback Arian Foster, who was limited to 49 yards on 15 carries."

I know the Ravens are the #2 seed, but I've seen [OC] Cam Cameron completely ditch Ray Rice in the Ravens game plan and put the whole thing on Flacco. You know what happens? They suck! They still have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball and they're at home, which is huge (8-0 H, 4-4 A). Houston ran the ball well last week, played great defense [2nd overall/NFL (3rd/pass, 4th/rush], and took some shots down the field with Andre Johnson. According to ESPN Stats & Info: "Outside the tackles is about the only place you can run on the Ravens. During the regular season, the Ravens allowed 5.97 yards a carry when runners went around left end, third-worst in the league. Backs averaged 4.0 yards a carry off right end. Running inside, though, is futile. The Ravens were the best at stopping plays off left tackle at 2.4 yards an attempt and allowed 3.2. and 3.8 yards a carry off right guard and right tackle." That sounds tasty for the Texans. The Ravens inability to score touchdowns and settle for field goals in the red zone is the kiss of death when backing a favorite. The bettor in me likes Texans +9. In reality, Ravens will probably win in close one.

Giants @ Packers [-8]: They played a close one this past December 4th. The Giants rushed for 100 yards on 20 carries in that game -- one of their most successful rushing efforts of the season. But the Packers were without linebackers Desmond Bishop and A.J. Hawk. The Giants running game look rejuvenated this past week. Having Justin Tuck along the interior of the Giants defensive line is giving them the look of their 2007 Super Bowl-winning team. The linebackers and secondary aren't all that great, but the D-line more than makes up for it. The success in the running game has opened up the playbook to more than just Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. Mario Manningham was featured late in the game last week, giving Eli Manning plenty of weapons to keep up with the prolific Packers offense. Aaron Rodgers should have all of his receivers, however RB James Starks is questionable. Without the threat of a running game, Rodgers will have to rely on his mobility to buy time for his receivers to get downfield. This could play out like the 2007 Super Bowl, with a close Giants victory in the end. However, Aaron Rodgers just does just enough for a win, perhaps a last-minute drive like the December meeting between these two. Packers fail to cover though. Giants [+8]. The temperature is supposed to be in the mid-20s too, so there is a small chance we see the frozen Tom Coughlin face.