Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Wild-card Playoff Picks

What time is Jim Mora Sr.???



Here are my picks for the Wild-card round. Anyone can pick a winner. It's how you do against the spread. Let's start the insanity.


Eat your heart out Tom Brady
Bengals @ Texans [-3]: Both teams have a good defense. The Texans offensive rushing attack is beastly, but the Bengals' Cedric Benson has kept defenses honest enough to keep rookie QB Andy Dalton upright. Both teams have big play receivers (AJ Green and Andre Johnson) that can stretch the field. I think this game comes down to the quarterbacks. TJ Yates has played in 6 games with 3 TDs and 3 INTs. As far as rookies, Andy Dalton has only been outdone by #1 pick [Panthers] Cam Newton this year. Home field should be big here, which is why the Texans are laying the obligatory 3 points. This is going to be a close game, so I'll have to take the 3 points and the Bengals. (Even though I will be rooting for my boys from The U on the Texans offensive line).


Lions @ Saints [-11]: Saints are a perfect 8-0 at home. Drew Brees recently broke Dan Marino's single-season passing yardage record. The Saints seem to be clicking at the right time. I like the Lions. You read it right. I realize the Saints beat the Lions on December 4th this year, 31-17. The Lions were without Ndamuhkong Suh, which changes their entire defense. The Lions actually had almost 30 more total yards and Matt Stafford threw for more yards than Brees, in New Orleans. Overall, the Lions have a defense that gives up less yards, an offense that is more efficient in the red zone, and a better kicking game. That stuff matters in the playoffs. In fact, the only thing that separated these two teams the first time were a 67-yard Robert Meachem TD catch. Brees has more weapons and the hometown crowd, so I think the Saints get the win, but they don't cover the double digits. I like the Lions with 11 points. This could be even tastier if you tease it with Bengals!


Why so serious?
Falcons @ Giants [-3]: Falcons are 4-4 on the road and the Giants share the same record at home, but there is a distinct home-field advantage in this one. The Falcons are comfortable inside the Geogia Dome, where Matt Ryan can change calls specifically for his offensive line. He won't have that luxury in Giants Stadium on Sunday. Giants D keeps Atlanta's offense in check while [Giants] Eli Manning does just enough to cover the default 3 points at home. This leads to more "Elite Manning" conversations, which sucks, but it also gives everyone the chance to see Tom Coughlin's face turn into a reddish-purple, plasticized mask in Green Bay. In HD. I always try to look on the bright side.


Steelers @ Broncos [+8.5]: Ben Rapelisberger can barely move, Rashard Mendenhall is done for the year, and leading tackler [FS] Ryan Clark is out of the game due to sickle cell trait. He can't deprive his organs of vital oxygen at the high altitude in Denver. I know the Broncos have lost three straight and I inherently dislike Tim Tebow because of my affiliation with The U. However, the Broncos match up really well at home against this beat-up Steelers team. The Steelers love to get teams in obvious passing situations and then blitz the hell out of a quarterback. It also helps if they're playing with a lead. That won't be easy in Denver because the Broncos run the ball well, limit turnovers because of it, play solid defense, and keep the game close. Combined that with the fact the Broncos are at home in mile-high stadium and I think they could win the game outright! Take the Broncos and the 8.5 points. Plus, you really think the NFL wants therapist to beat Jesus? Exactly.

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