Super Bowl XLVI Pick

Playoff Record [ATS]: 7-3


Giants. Patriots. We know the teams and their history. Every sports outlet has thrown nearly every stat at us in an attempt to predict the outcome. And you know what? In the two weeks leading up to Super Bowl XLVI it seems like the masses are still split on a winner.

This should make Pats fans feel better

Let's call a spade a spade. The Giants feel like the favorite, despite being a 2.5-point underdog in Vegas. Eli Manning is playing better than he ever has, the Giants look to have three legitimate receivers, and their defensive line is playing the way it did in 2007. Patriots fans should feel nauseous. 


The Patriots swiss-cheese D, which [Jets LB] Bart Scott once claimed, "couldn't stop a nose bleed", has improved over the end of the regular season and into the playoffs with [S] Patrick Chung and [LB] Brandon Spikes returning to the starting line-up. The offense is still the leading story for the Pats though, as Tom Brady's performance usually dictates the team's success.


During the Giants first few offensive possessions, it'll be interesting to see how Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw run the ball against the Pats defensive line. The Giants running backs are not the same as they were in 2007 and their effectiveness, early on, will decide how aggressive the Patriots defense is with Manning. Bradshaw didn't play in the Week 9 game this year against the Patriots, and he has a stress fracture in his foot after playing 54 snaps in the NFC Championship against San Francisco. Jacobs played well against the Pats in Week 9, running for 72 bruising yards and a touchdown. But as [retired Patriots LB and ESPN analyst] Tedy Bruschi said earlier this week, "Jacobs can be a beast or a bunny rabbit." Watch how these guys come out of the gate. 

The Giants would've given Kyle Williams
the game ball, but he'd drop it.

Chung's leadership in the Patriots secondary will be tested, as they must stay patient and disciplined, not giving up the big pass play that the Giants have been living on the last few weeks. The Patriots must also tackle well, as most of the Giants big pass plays have actually been 8-10 yard catches that turn into 30+ yard runs. Three out of the top four receivers in yards after contact are Patriots (1 Gronkowski, 3 Welker, 4 Hernandez), but the Giants Victor Cruz is number two. Will the Pats keep the G-men off Cruuuuuuuuz control? 


During the first few Patriots offensive possessions, it's all about Tom Brady's comfort level. In 2007, Giants Defensive Coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, did an unbelievable job confusing the undefeated Brady bunch and got himself a ring and a head-coaching position. This year, Perry Fewell's been making the Giants' defensive decisions.


This is a big deal. 

Both teams in Super Bowl
XLVI got some luck

From 2006-2009, Fewell was the defensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills. During the 2009-2010 season, he was their interim Head Coach. In those four years, the Bills were 0-8 against the Patriots, losing by an average of 16.5 points [the 46-point drubbing by the Pats on 11/18/07 increases the avg, but if you remove that game from the equation, the margin of victory is still 12.3 points].


Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick started their NFL coaching careers together, which provided an interesting cat and mouse game in the 2007 Super Bowl. The coaching edge, with Spagnuolo's defense thwarting the prolific Patriots offense, went to the Giants. 


But how much better was the Patriots offense?


Brady set records in 2007 with Randy Moss running deep and Wes Welker carving underneath routes. The other guys on offense? Receivers Donte Stallworth and Kelly Washington with an aging Sammy Morris at running back. This year's Patriots are much more versatile and make in-game adjustments so well that I think it's what keeps them in this game. The obvious three-headed, middle-hash monster of Grokowski, Hernandez, and Wes Welker will make plays, but keep an eye on Deion Branch. He isn't better than Randy Moss in '07, but his audible adjustments with Brady could prove crucial in the waning minutes of a close game. 


Giants are more talented on both sides of the ball, and they've beaten two out of the three best quarterbacks in the NFL, on the road. You'd be a fool not to take them with the points. Giants [+2.5, 3 in some areas].


The Giants still have to play the best QB in the game, though. Tom Brady leads the Patriots to a last-minute 21-20 victory. 


Get your popcorn ready.