NFL Divisional Championship Picks

All picks against the spread [ATS]
Last Week: 3-1
Overall: 5-3

Don't let Tebow know about our deal. Ps what size
Uggs you wear?

Ravens @ Patriots [-7.5]: A cab driver once told me, "your health is your wealth." The Patriots are mostly healthy for the first time all year. It showed last week. The offensive line kept Tom Brady virtually untouched against a good Broncos defense. Boomer Esiason summed up the subsequent performance:

"It was almost like they were pissed that they were playing against Tim Tebow, who got all the headlines going into the game. And it's about us making sure everybody remembers that we're still here. I don't necessarily really feel like that's their motivation, but that was something to behold. That was vintage Tom Brady in his finest hour. He probably played as well Saturday night, against a team that he should have played well against, as any game we've ever seen him play."

Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have always had high praise for both Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, because they know that no matter what their age and physical status, the knowledge they bring on defense is invaluable. Both Lewis and Reed know how to communicate with the guys around them. Nothing that the Patriots throw at them will surprise them because they

have the presence and the poise to predict, or at least react, to what the Patriots do. Those instincts make up for the lack of speed. That said, Belichick and Brady will spread out the Ravens defense, taking some pressure off Brady up the middle and run hurry-up offensives, as well as a lot of motion out of prototypical run formations to create mismatches. Brady will pick the Ravens apart like a hungry vulture. 


On the other side, the Patriots' DT Kyle Love benefitted most from LB Brandon Spikes' return. He caused trouble up front while the Broncos defensive line doubled Vince Wilfork and kept an eye on Spikes. Patriots safety Patrick Chung made easy reads on Tebow and infused some confidence in the Patriots secondary. They will have more of a challenge with the Ravens offense. Joe Flacco will takes shots downfield with Torrey Smith and work Anquan Boldin underneath to test the Patriots secondary. The match-up to watch will be the Patriots defensive line and how it plays both the pass and the screens to Ray Rice. The Patriots defense did a fundamentally sound job against the Broncos run/option game. They will have to stay in their positions against Ray Rice and hope to hold the Ravens offense to field goals. Bill Belichick will make Flacco beat the Patriots through passing.


Patriots offense, with a pissed-off Brady at home, win 31-24, but just don't cover the nagging half point. Ravens [+7.5].

"I'm just glad my face thawed out"

Giants @ 49ers [-2.5]: As soon as the G-Men beat the Packers in Lambeau, this line started jumping around from 49ers being a straight up/pick 'em to a -3 point favorite, before settling in a -2.5. These two played each other back on November 13th, and while many of the betting numbers are almost the same, the teams are very different. 


Neither team's starting running backs, Ahmad Bradshaw or Frank Gore, really played (Gore played a few snaps, but was basically injured). The Giants D had two sacks, Patrick Willis had one. Eli Manning threw for just over 300 yards while Alex Smith threw for 230. It was a field-goal kicking contest until just under 2:00 minutes in the third quarter, when both quarterbacks started hitting receivers for touchdowns. 


The Giants were 1-4 in the red zone, the 49ers 1-3. 49ers won 27-20. The biggest stat that stuck out though was the Time of Possession. The Giants had the ball for almost 10 more minutes (34:37/25:23) and lost! 


Special teams is a big part of the 49ers success this year, and the ''questionable" status on Ted Ginn's knee does not bode well for the 49ers. Home field advantage doesn't play into this match-up as the Giants play equally well, if not better, on the road. 


The 49ers won a thriller at home last week, but the Giants defense is much better than the Saints. Alex Smith will have to find someone else to throw to besides Vernon Davis, and even when he hits Davis, he can't expect 40-yard runs after the catch like in the Saints game. The Giants are considered a run-heavy team, but Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, and even TE Jake Ballard are a great complement to their successful ground game. I love the Giants getting points here as I see them winning outright. Giants [+2.5]. p.s. Ed Hochuli reffing a home favorite by 2.5 is scandelous.

The NFL and the media get the Super Bowl they want: Patriots. Giants. Round 2.