Steelers @ Packers Superbowl XLV Prop-Bet Preview

First thing's first, I'm a Patriots fan.  So, truth be told, I'm still pissed they're not in it.  I'm angry about the way they lost (upset at home after a bye-week), who they lost to (Division rivals and overall assclowns, the Jets), and how they lost (outplayed/committed too many uncharacteristic mistakes).  Add to that the fact that last year, they got smoked by Baltimore in the same scenario.  Prior to that, Tom Brady's knee was bent the other way, ending his year about 8 minutes into the season.  The icing on the cake?  The year before the Brady injury was the whole"undefeated season that never was/miracle-catch". Oh, I forgot to mention, on top of all this, there isn't even a guaranteed NFL season next year!  So this could be your last chance to ride the gambling roller-coaster.  Or at least make it an interesting 3.5-5 hours if you have no interest in Football and have to go to someone's party.

The Super Bowl and gambling are like New Year's Eve and drinking.  It's amateur hour.  The one time of the year when someone who doesn't normally practice says to themselves, "I'm going to be a vodka drinker tonight" and ends up rolling around in a pile of his own piss, then tries to fly out of it by swinging his penis around like a helicopter (For the record, not me! A co-worker who decided to check out the girls party at "CountryFest".  Lucky for me, I hate country music and drink habitually, so I don't have to worry.).  Bookies prey on people who like to bet every conceivable prop bet.  It's a way for bookies to make money.  All they care about is getting equal money on both sides of a bet and taking a percentage (anywhere from 5% or more) attached to making the bet, that's it! Bonus street cred if you knew that the aforementioned percentage was known as "The Juice".

Lucky for you, I've scoured everything offered this week and picked out a few gems for your enjoyment. Popular props usually require you to lay down more money than you can make back.  For example, to place a bet on which way the opening coin-flip will land, you have to put down $115 to win $100[-115].  So the bookie is taking $15 for every $100 put down?! Fuck him.  They love when people bet things like "How long will the Star Bangled Banner take?" and "Which team scores first?" because as long as they have an equal amount of bets, they're getting richer.  The following suggestions reflect value betting, meaning they aren't popular (like the opening coin flip), but you aren't laying down a lot more money than you'd make. And lastly, I'm not responsible for anything you do.  Remember, a wise surfer philosopher Bodhi once said, "If you want the ultimate, you gotta be willing to pay the ultimate price."

1st Score of the Game:  Packers rushing Touchdown (+450)
It's no surprise Green Bay loves to throw and has a suspect running game, however when they're in the red zone, throwing lanes become very tight.  In the biggest game of the year, teams aren't going to risk a costly turnover in an opening drive.  Additionally, Aaron Rodgers can scramble well for a white guy quarterback, [Packers Defensive Tackle and 300+ lbs. monster] B.J. Raji plays fullback in the Packers goal-line formation, and the Steelers defense relies on a lot of zone-blitzing schemes.  Throw down the mortgage and cross your fingers for no field goals.

Total Fumbles committed by both teams:  Over 1.5 (EV)
You get even money back as long as there is over one fumble.  With two great defenses that love to blitz along with two offensive lines that have had their share of blown protections, I could see both QBs fumbling, not to mention the fact both teams average over half a fumble per game and both defenses are among the league's best at forcing turnovers.  Pay off your college loans with this one.

The First Coach's Challenge will result in:  Play Stands (-105)
So what if you have to put down $5 for every $100, the NFL only overturned 40% of the calls this past year.  When it's the biggest game of the year (and even better if it's close), the NFL doesn't want the refs to get attention and influence too much.  They leave that to David Stern and the NBA. Plus, Packer's coach Mike McCarthy and Steeler's coach Mike Tomlin could headline the next "red flag toss" at the Special Olympics.

[Bonus Prop Pick] The Number of Times Fox Announcers mention "Brett Favre":  Over 2.5 (-125)
I know it's an extra 25% on $100, but Joe Buck in the broadcast booth and the Packers are in the Super Bowl?! The year that Favre retires?! If you've been dreaming of that second home, now's the time to strike (especially in this market)!

Don't forget to tip your dealer ;)